Woulda, shoulda - Oscar edition.

You want picks? I got picks. (Except for the Shorts categories.)

Documentary Feature
Hell and Back Again
If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Undefeated


Haven't seen these though have heard fantastic things about four of them. On a whim, I'll pick Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory.

Best Foreign Feature
Bullhead
Footnote
In Darkness
Monsieur Lazhar
A Separation

Okay, so A Separation is the only movie I've seen on this list and, granted, it was my #4 movie of 2011. But it's also the most heralded foreign movie of last year and also has a screenplay nomination. I predict it will win.

Best Animated Feature
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

Having seen none of these, my best guess is Rango. Of the three mainstream releases on this list, it is regarded as the most visually accomplished and most highly lauded among critics.

Art Direction
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
War Horse

The two most nominated movies, The Artist and Hugo, will battle each other many times this night. Hugo may win for simply having more Art Direction.

Costume Design
Anonymous
The Artist
Hugo
Jane Eyre
W.E.

Probably one of the first awards given out at the telecast, this will be the first of many times you will hear The Artist mentioned.

Makeup
Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle, Albert Nobbs
Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight and Lisa Tomblin, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland, The Iron Lady

The Iron Lady will and should win.

Visual Effects  
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon

Part of me thinks Harry Potter might get this as a sort of lifetime achievement award. Or maybe even Rise of the Planet of the Apes for its great use of motion capture, but I'm leaning toward perhaps the more conservative pick of the 3-D, CGI Paris of Hugo.

Sound Editing
Drive
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
War Horse

War Horse and Hugo will probably be vying for this award. Unconfidently, I'll go with War Horse.


Sound Mixing
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon
War Horse

Like the above category, War Horse and Hugo will be the favorites. The Academy likes to split these two awards, so I'll say Hugo with this one.


Music (Original Score)
John Williams, The Adventures of Tintin
Ludovic Bource, The Artist
Howard Shore, Hugo
Alberto Iglesias, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
John Williams, War Horse

The most controversial score this year was Bource's work for The Artist. It's a good score, but punctuated by that altogether ridiculous lift from Bernard Herrmann's iconic score for Vertigo. Yet the juggernaut that is The Artist will likely steamroll over this award too.

Music (Original Song)
"Man or Muppet" from The Muppets, Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio" from Rio, Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown and Siedah Garrett

One of the stories of the Oscars is whether they'll let Jason Segal and Walter the Muppet perform "Man or Muppet". Nobody's asking that about the Rio song.

Cinematography
Guillaume Schiffman, The Artist
Jeff Cronenweth, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Robert Richardson, Hugo
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Tree of Life
Janusz Kaminski, War Horse

Lubezki has to win this right? Kaminski's work on War Horse is fantastic but nothing seems on the level of The Tree of Life.

Film Editing
Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Kevin Tent, The Descendants
Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Thelma Schoonmaker, Hugo
Christopher Tellefsen, Moneyball

Editing tends to be a harbinger of bigger awards, so The Artist is the logical frontrunner.

Best Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
Asghar Farhadi, A Separation

Woody's umpteenth writing nod for Midnight in Paris should narrowly edge out Hazanivicius, who (spoiler alert) will be handsomely compensated in other categories. I'd love for A Separation to sneak in there and steal it though.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants
John Logan, Hugo
George Clooney, Beau Willimon and Grant Heslov, The Ides of March
Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

The Descendants screenplay looks poised to give another deserving Adapted Screenplay win for Payne, who also won for Sideways a few years back. A Moneyball or Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy win would also make me happy.

Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Spencer is the only real lock among the acting categories. She should and will win. Though I'm still wondering why Shailene Woodley isn't on this list for The Descendants.

Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Plummer should win this and also looks like the prohibitive favorite. Hill's nod is much deserved though.
 

Best Actress
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Let me just get out of the way that Michelle Williams is quite likely the best actress of her generation and I'd give her every award imaginable. But this feels like a neck-and-neck race between Davis and Streep. I'm leaning towards Davis here.

Best Actor
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
 
Clooney looks to be the frontrunner here and he'd probably get my vote although I quite liked both Pitt and Oldman as well. But Dujardin, after winning both the SAG and BAFTA trophies, may sneak in here riding on the wave of The Artist love.

Best Director
Michel Hazanivicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

Hazanivicius already won the DGA, so this seems like his to lose, though I'd vote for Malick without a moment's thought.

Best Picture
War Horse
The Artist
Moneyball
The Descendants
The Tree of Life
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Hugo
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

At this point, I'd be pretty shocked if any other movie than The Artist won. But The Tree of Life is the best movie out of this bunch.