Shiny, happy people...

You want your Oscar picks? I got your Oscar picks. (Along with who I think should win.)

The Illusionist... will not win.

I have no opinion/prediction on the shorts (live action, short, and documentary), given I haven't seen them.  As for the rest, here ya go...

Animated Feature Film

• “How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
• “The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
• “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich 

I liked all three movies (and loved The Illusionist), but Pixar always wins this.  Barring a major upset: Toy Story 3.

Documentary (Feature)

• “Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
• “Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
• “Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
• “Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
• “Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley

Exit Through the Gift Shop would be my pick and how could the Academy pass up the possible chance of seeing the mysterious Banksy accept an award?

Foreign Language Film

• “Biutiful” Mexico
• “Dogtooth” Greece
• “In a Better World” Denmark
• “Incendies” Canada
• “Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)” Algeria 

Crazy, crazy Dogtooth

One of the big surprises leading up to the nominations was how Dogtooth made the shortlist.  The next big surprise was that it ended up getting up nominated.  Will we be surprised yet again after an Academy win?  I sure hope so and why the hell not?

Makeup

• “Barney's Version” Adrien Morot
• “The Way Back” Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
• “The Wolfman” Rick Baker and Dave Elsey 

I guess The Wolfman wins for having the MOST makeup. 

Art Direction

• “Alice in Wonderland”
  Production Design: Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
  Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
• “Inception”
  Production Design: Guy Hendrix Dyas; Set Decoration: Larry Dias and Doug Mowat
• “The King's Speech”
  Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Judy Farr
• “True Grit”
  Production Design: Jess Gonchor; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh

Will win:  The King's Speech.  Should win:  True Grit.

Costume Design

• “Alice in Wonderland” Colleen Atwood
• “I Am Love” Antonella Cannarozzi
• “The King's Speech” Jenny Beavan
• “The Tempest” Sandy Powell
• “True Grit” Mary Zophres

The King's Speech is again the likely candidate, though I could potentially see Alice in Wonderland sneaking in.  My personal toss-up would be between I Am Love and True Grit.

Music (Original Score)

• “How to Train Your Dragon” John Powell
• “Inception” Hans Zimmer
• “The King's Speech” Alexandre Desplat
• “127 Hours” A.R. Rahman
• “The Social Network” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

Desplat is a great composer, yet it's probably not even his best work this year (that goes to The Ghost Writer).  Reznor and Ross should win this and I think they will.

Music (Original Song)

• “Coming Home” from “Country Strong” Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
• “I See the Light” from “Tangled” Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
• “If I Rise” from “127 Hours” Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
• “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3" Music and Lyric by Randy Newman

Errrmm... Newman?

Sound Editing

• “Inception” Richard King
• “Toy Story 3” Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
• “Tron: Legacy” Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
• “True Grit” Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
• “Unstoppable” Mark P. Stoeckinger 

True Grit is my preference here and I see it just edging out Inception.

Sound Mixing

• “Inception” Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
• “The King's Speech” Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
• “Salt” Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
• “The Social Network” Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
• “True Grit” Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

The work in this category for The Social Network is kind of masterful. I don't know how it wouldn't win, although watch out for True Grit again.

Visual Effects

• “Alice in Wonderland” Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
• “Hereafter” Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojansky and Joe Farrell
• “Inception” Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
• “Iron Man 2” Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick 

The bone tossed to Inception seems like it will be in this category.  And I think it's deserving of the award here.

Cinematography

• “Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
• “Inception” Wally Pfister
• “The King's Speech” Danny Cohen
• “The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
• “True Grit” Roger Deakins

My two faves in this category are The Social Network and True Grit and I think the Academy will be deciding between those two as well.  If you twist my arm, I'd go with Cronenweth's work in The Social Network for the win.

Film Editing

• “Black Swan” Andrew Weisblum
• “The Fighter” Pamela Martin
• “The King's Speech” Tariq Anwar
• “127 Hours” Jon Harris
• “The Social Network” Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter 

The Social Network will and should win this award.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

• “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
• “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
• “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
• “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
• “Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini 

This might be the strongest category of all, but Sorkin's quick wit and jumbled structure will rise above the rest, as it should.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

• “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
• “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
  Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
• “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
• “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
• “The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidle

This looks to be another The King's Speech win, though The Kids Are All Right may be the sleeper.  I also have an enduring affection for Leigh's Another Year, which would be my preference.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
• John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”

Christian Bale will win this category by holding off Geoffrey Rush.  My vote would go to John Hawkes in Winter's Bone.
 

Melissa Leo and Christian Bale in The Fighter

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

This is kind of a tough one to call.  Melissa Leo (who was recently nominated as Best Actress for Frozen) looks to be the favorite.  The Steinfeld/True Grit camp shrewdly campaigned her for the supporting category even though she's clearly the lead actress.  Leo will win, Steinfeld should.

Actor in a Leading Role

• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
• Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
• James Franco in “127 Hours”

No question this is Firth's to lose and he will end up taking the trophy home, though my vote would go to Eisenberg.

Actress in a Leading Role

Natalie Portman in The Black Swan

• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

This is a no-doubt showdown between Bening and Portman.  I think Portman will edge her out for the physicality of the performance.  But to me the showdown should be between Lawrence and Williams, in which case I think I'd be happy for a tie.

Directing

• “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
• “The Fighter” David O. Russell
• “The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
• “The Social Network” David Fincher
• “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 

Hooper's DGA win puts him squarely as the favorite here and he'll win.  Fincher should win though and, between the two frankly, it shouldn't even be close.

Picture

• “Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
• “The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
• “Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
• “The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
• “The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
• “127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
• “The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
• “Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
• “True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
• “Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers 

The King's Speech

This will come down to a duel between The King's Speech and The Social Network.  TSN seemed a pretty solid lock by sweeping up nearly all of the major critics' awards.  But with the most total nominations, along with winning the top prizes at the Producers, Directors, AND Screen Actors Guilds, it is now starting to point in the direction of The King's Speech.  The lead-up to this final award may point to who will win this category.  Often, the editing and directing categories are harbingers of who will win Best Picture.  By my predictions, the two films will split these awards.  If something contrary to that happens, we may already have our answer.  Sadly, it looks like The King's Speech will win, though I think The Social Network should.