I got a little sick, so I'm getting this out at the last second.
Given I haven't seen any of the shorts, I'll go ahead and skip those.
Best foreign language film:
Ajami (Israel)
El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Un Prophète (France)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
I have yet to see any of these nominees either, but it seems like the run-up towards the Oscars have narrowed it down to two, Un Prophète and The White Ribbon. Haneke's German-language entry won the Golden Globe and he's the only filmmaker of the group with any large international recognition. However, I believe France's Un Prophète will pull the minor upset.
Best documentary feature:
Burma VJ - Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
The Cove - Nominees to be determined
Food, Inc. - Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
The Most Dangerous Man in America - Judith Ehrlich and Rich Goldsmith
Which Way Home - Rebecca Cammisa
I've only seen The Cove and I loved it. It would be interesting, given that the list from which I am copying this has "nominees to be determined", if the film would win, so who will walk up to accept? It seems to be the front runner, so I'll make that my choice, but I think Food, Inc. has a strong shot.
Achievement in makeup:
Il Divo - Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
Star Trek - Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, and Joel Harlow
The Young Victoria - Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore
I've only seen Star Trek, but from what I know about the other films, I think it will win.
Achievement in costume design:
Bright Star - Janet Patterson
Coco Before Chanel Catherine Leterrier
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus - Monique Prudhomme
Nine - Colleen Atwood
The Young Victoria - Sandy Powell
My guess here is The Young Victoria, which is the only one on this list I haven't seen. My personal choice would be Catherine Leterrier's work in Coco.
Achievement in sound editing:
Avatar - Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
The Hurt Locker - Paul N.J. Ottosson
Inglourious Basterds - Wylie Stateman
Star Trek - Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
Up - Michael Silvers and Tom Myers
Achievement in sound mixing:
Avatar - Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, and Tony Johnson
The Hurt Locker - Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
Inglourious Basterds - Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, and Mark Ulano
Star Trek - Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, and Peter J. Devlin
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, and Geoffrey Patterson
The sound categories are just one of groups of awards that will pit the two juggernauts of the night, The Hurt Locker and Avatar, against each other.
I think The Hurt Locker will win both and it should.
Achievement in visual effects:
Avatar - Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, and Andrew R. Jones
District 9 - Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, and Matt Aitken
Star Trek - Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, and Burt Dalton
Really? Avatar will and should win.
Achievement in art direction:
Avatar
Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg
Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro
Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
Nine
Art Direction: John Myhre
Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
Sherlock Holmes
Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
The Young Victoria
Art Direction: Patrice Vermette
Set Decoration: Maggie Gray
Avatar will probably rack up a series of awards during the middle of the ceremony and this will likely be on of them.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score):
Avatar - James Horner
Fantastic Mr. Fox - Alexandre Desplat
The Hurt Locker - Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
Sherlock Holmes - Hans Zimmer
Up - Michael Giacchino
I'm leaning toward Horner and Avatar here, but my preference is Desplat and Fox.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song):
"Almost There" from The Princess and the Frog
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
"Down in New Orleans" from The Princess and the Frog
Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
"Loin de Paname" from Paris 36
Music by Reinhardt Wagner
Lyric by Frank Thomas
"Take It All" from Nine
Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
"The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from Crazy Heart
Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
"The Weary Kind" is probably not even the best song from Crazy Heart, but it will and should win this category.
Achievement in film editing:
Avatar - Stehen Rivkin, John Refoua, and James Cameron
District 9 - Julian Clarke
The Hurt Locker - Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
Inglourious Basterds - Sally Menke
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire - Joe Klotz
I think the scope of Avatar will win it this category, but I would vote for The Hurt Locker.
Achievement in cinematography:
Avatar - Mauro Fiore
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - Bruno Delbonnel
The Hurt Locker - Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds - Robert Richardson
The White Ribbon - Christian Berger
I've only seen previews of The White Ribbon, but it looks like something the Academy would vote for. Outside of that, again I would go for The Hurt Locker.
Best animated feature film:
Coraline - Henry Selick
Fantastic Mr. Fox - Wes Anderson
The Princess and the Frog - John Musker and Ron Clements
The Secret of Kells - Tomm Moore
Up - Pete Docter
Pixar, with Up, will continue its domination in this award (it's even nominated for best picture this year!), my vote goes to Anderson's Fantastic Mr. Fox.
Adapted screenplay:
District 9 - Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
An Education - Nick Hornby
In the Loop - Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire - Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air - Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Reitman and Turner for Up in the Air will win and should win. Fletcher's adaptation is likely the only competition.
Original screenplay:
The Hurt Locker - Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger - Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman
A Serious Man - Joel and Ethan Coen
Up
Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter
Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy
Tarantino will win and he should.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role:
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Waltz will and should win this award.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role:
Penélope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
No question Mo'Nique will win this. She probably should, but my personal preference is Kendrick.
Performance by an actor in a leading role:
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
If I were a voter, this would be the hardest selection, as they're all pretty even in my eyes. I would probably vote for Firth, but I have no qualms with Bridges, who I'm predicting will win for Crazy Heart.
Performance by an actress in a leading role:
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Maybe the tightest race tonight will be between Bullock and Streep. By a nose, I think Bullock has the momentum and will win her first oscar. My preference would go to Mulligan or Sidibe (and I'm still wondering why Abbie Cornish didn't get a nomination for Bright Star).
Achievement in directing:
James Cameron - Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Kathryn Bigelow has to win, will win, and without question should win. And in doing so, the Academy will only marginally begin making amends for nearly 90 years of neglecting to give any woman the statue in this category.
Best motion picture:
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air
Avatar looked to be the early favorite, but The Hurt Locker found a second wave of momentum. Then came Lockergate. I think The Hurt Locker still has the edge. I'd love Up in the Air to win, but it won't, so I'll be happy to see my second favorite movie of the year win.
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